IWF vollzieht Kehrtwende in Sachen kontraktive Fiskalpolitik

Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) wird seit vielen Jahren immer wieder massiv wegen seiner harten Sparauflagen kritisiert, die er zur Bedingung für Milliardenkredite an überschuldete Länder macht. Von „Kaputtsparen“ ist dabei häufig die Rede. Auch in der europäischen Schuldenkrise drängte der IWF bisher auf scharfe Einsparungen nicht zuletzt bei Sozial-, Pensions- und Gesundheitsausgaben.
Doch in seinem jüngsten globalen Wirtschaftsausblick, den der Fonds vor wenigen Tagen in Tokio präsentierte, vollzieht Chefökonom Olivier Blanchard eine Kehrtwende. Versteckt in einer Fact-Box kommt der IWF in dem Bericht (Seite 41 bis 43, Anm.) zum Schluss, dass übermäßiges Sparen das erklärte Ziel, die Schulden in einem überschaubaren Zeitraum zu verringern, verfehlt. Das kommt einem indirekten Schuldeingeständnis gleich. Die „Financial Times“ spricht in einem Kommentar von einem „Akt des Aufstands“, mehrere Finanzexperten sprachen am Wochenende von dem wichtigsten makroökonomischen Ereignis dieses Jahres.
Konkret bezieht sich der IWF auf eine Studie, die zeigt, dass der Einfluss der Steuerpolitik auf das Wachstum viel höher ist als bisher angenommen - und als sie der IWF zur Basis für seine Sparauflagen machte. Demnach ging der Fonds in der Regel von einem fiskalpolitischen Multiplikator von 0,5 aus. Das bedeutet, dass die Wirtschaft für jeden Euro an öffentlichen Ausgaben weniger um 0,50 Cent schrumpft. Laut der aktuellen Studie liegt dieser Effekt aber deutlich höher - bei 0,9 bis 1,7.

Quelle: orf.at

Fed's Beige Book: Economic Activity, consumer spending and real estate

From the Fed's Beige Book:

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity generally expanded modestly since the last report.

Consumer spending was generally reported to be flat to up slightly since the last report. A number of Districts characterized retail sales as expanding at a modest pace (...)Residential real estate showed widespread improvement since the last report. All twelve Districts reported that existing home sales strengthened, in some cases substantially. Selling prices were steady or rising. Boston, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Dallas and San Francisco noted declining or tight inventories, which have put upward pressure on prices. Modest price increases were reported in the New York, Richmond, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts. New York and Richmond reported relatively strong demand at the high and low ends of the market, whereas Philadelphia and Kansas City noted relative strength for mid-range homes; Boston indicated a shift in the mix toward lower or medium priced homes. New home construction and sales were more mixed but still mostly improved: increased construction and/or new home sales were reported in the Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco Districts. Multi-family construction, in particular, was described as robust in the Boston, New York, Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas Districts. Residential rental markets continued to be characterized as strong, even in the New York and Atlanta Districts where rents increased somewhat less strongly than in recent months. Commercial real estate markets were mixed since the last report. Office markets showed signs of softening in the northeastern Districts--Boston, New York and Philadelphia--with New York remarking on substantial new supply coming on the market in early 2013. In contrast, Atlanta, Minneapolis and San Francisco noted some improvement, while most other Districts reported stable or mixed market conditions. Industrial markets showed some strength in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland and Atlanta Districts, while conditions were described as sluggish in Richmond and mixed in St. Louis. Atlanta noted weakness in the market for retail space. Commercial construction activity was also mixed: Atlanta, Minneapolis and Kansas City reported some improvement in non-residential construction activity, while Richmond and Dallas noted that activity was sluggish.

 Source: Fed

Credit booms and financial crises

A new piece by Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor is available at vox. The article compares the severity of financial crises:

The central part played by credit in the deep downturn and weak recovery fits a recurring historical pattern. Financial crises correlate with more painful recessions. This column takes a close look at 14 advanced economies over the past 140 years and shows that larger credit booms during expansions have been systematically associated with more severe and prolonged slumps. In short, credit bites back. Measured against the historical benchmark, the recent US recovery has been far better than could have been expected.

via Paul Krugman

Where's the labour market recovery in Europe?

The unemployment rate in the euro area reached the highest on record as the festering debt crisis pushed the economy toward a recession, prompting companies to cut jobs.
Unemployment in the economy of the 17 nations using the euro was 11.4 percent in August, the same as in June and July after those months’ figures were revised higher, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest since the data series started in 1995 and in line with median of 30 economists’ forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

Source: Bloomberg

How big is Quantitative Easing in the US going to be?

• ... We now view the Fed as following a looser version of the “threshold rule” championed by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.
• What are the thresholds? We read the committee as signaling that the federal funds rate will not rise until the unemployment rate has fallen to the 6½%-7% range. The corresponding threshold for the end of QE3 may be in the 7%-7½% range.
•These implicit commitments are undoubtedly subject to an inflation ceiling ... may be a year-on-year core PCE reading of 2½%-2¾%.
(...) Under the committee’s economic forecasts, we estimate that the funds rate would stay near zero until mid-2015, while QE3 would run through mid-2014 and total $1.2trn.
• Under our own economic forecasts, we estimate that the funds rate would stay near zero until mid-2016, while QE3 would run through mid-2015 and total just under $2trn.

Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/09/goldman-estimate-qe3-could-be-12-to-20.html#zvhz8YKwbMvUUSAY.99

Is a Grexit becoming more or less likely?

The probability of a Greek exit from the euro has not receded in the wake of the ECB announcement; on the contrary, it's now more likely because it's "more manageable"

Troika leaders (from the ECB, IMF, and the EU) probably don't think a Greek exit is as big a deal as they thought it was before the ECB announced its new plan

A Greek exit would still cause capital flight from Italy and Spain but would be necessarily accompanied by massive global central bank intervention. (...)

 Nevertheless, Grexit is not certain and its potential timing is highly uncertain. The risk of Grexit in the next couple of months probably has receded, with deadlines being pushed off. Policymakers may be unwilling to trigger Grexit in the run-up to the US elections, and while Middle East tensions are so high.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-greek-exit-from-euro-more-likely-2012-9#ixzz271glbVfT
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-greek-exit-from-euro-more-likely-2012-9#ixzz271gVqLrO

German Constitutional Court offers Merkel a day of hope and happiness

KARLSRUHE, Germany – Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court on Wednesday gave Chancellor Angela Merkel a significant victory in her bid to master the debt crisis that has buffeted the continent for years and endangered its common currency, granting approval to one of the key pillars of her strategy.
With the ruling, the 17 countries of the euro zone will be able to move ahead with the establishment of the European Stability Mechanism, something like a continental version of the International Monetary Fund. The mechanism will handle bailouts and work in tandem with the European Central Bank to buy the bonds of countries such as Italy and Spain that are straining under high interest rates.
The court ruled that Germany could proceed with its contribution to the mechanism but set certain conditions, including a requirement for parliamentary approval of any increase in the agreed German contribution of 190 billion euros, or about $240 billion.

Source: NYT