Recession probabilities once again are Topic One in the United States. This week the influential Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) took the position that a U.S. recession is inevitable in the near term if it has not started already. Regarding Europe, many observers believe that a Eurozone recession is in the works, but the likelihood that the United States will follow suit is a subject of intense debate.
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I emphasize that a U.S. recession is certainly possible, given that a Eurozone recession looks very likely. It is entirely conceivable that European policymakers will fail to gather the necessary resources in time to prevent financial-market contagion to peripheral countries, such as Italy and Spain, or to recapitalize their banks sufficiently quickly in the face of or, better yet, in advance of a Greek default. Such a financial shock, if it occurs, could be transmitted to the United States with sufficient severity to lead to recession here. This would be a new negative shock, however, and does not appear to be built into current early-warning financial indicators in the United States to a sufficient degree to make a U.S. recession the base case at this time. My current reading of the financial market indicators of the U.S. business cycle is that investors are more concerned about Japan-style economic stagnation right now than about a traditional recession.
Quelle: Econbrowser
