"Überraschungen werden in den kommenden Jahren wahrscheinlich positiver Natur sein"

Inmitten der in diesen Tagen um sich greifenden dunkelschwarzen Krisenberichterstattung liefert David Kotok eine Analyse der derzeitigen Schuldensituation in den USA und in Europa mit folgender vorsichtig-positiver Schlussfolgerung:

Default risk has characterized the last four years of the financial crisis. It is on everyone’s mind. Assumptions about creditworthiness and expectations about the future of creditworthiness are at their lowest, and distrust for rating agencies and credit evaluation is at its highest. The sentiment among market participants is acutely cynical.

All this says to us that the surprises during the coming years are more likely to be on the positive side. Default risks in the realms of sovereign debt, the housing sector, and state and local government have been identified. Concerns about the United States and its default risk have also been identified.