In the event of a downgrade, S&P’s rating on EFSF will be downgraded to the lowest rating of the previously triple-As countries backing the structure (except Luxembourg6). Since France could potentially be downgraded by two notches, EFSF could potentially be downgraded to AA. If France is ultimately only downgraded by one notch, then EFSF will also only be downgraded one notch since the downgrade of the five triple-As backing the structure will be limited to one notch according to S&P. [...]
Currently, the ESM would have 58.1% share of AAA shareholders. If the six AAA euro area countries are downgraded, then this will drop to zero and it seems highly unlikely that the ESM would be able to achieve an AAA. If France is downgraded to AA flat then we see a significant risk that the ESM will not be able to be rated above that level, particularly if the lending volume significantly exceeds the paid-in capital.
Quelle: FTAlphaville
