[...] the economy will manage to post positive headline GDP numbers, but this growth will not be fast enough to keep the unemployment rate from drifting higher.
[...]
With below-trend growth we expect the unemployment rate to climb back above 10%.
[...]
While the bulk of the recent data have been very weak, the most disturbing has
been the sharp loss of momentum in private sector employment growth.
[...]
Private payrolls manage tepid monthly gains of just 25,000 through the end
of 2010. As the growth recession fades in the second half of 2011, gains in
private payroll employment should accelerate. We expect average monthly
gains of 125,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011.
Therefore, for most of 2010 and 2011, employment growth is not expected to
keep up with the rise in the labor force, which means the unemployment rate
heads north. We expect a steady increase to 10.1% by the second quarter
with a slow fall slightly below 10.0% by the end of 2011.
Im zitierten Report betonen die Autoren, dass sie einen Double-Dip für unwahrscheinlich halten; es werde vielmehr zu einer Wachstumsrezession kommen, in der die Arbeitnehmer aufgrund der anhaltenden Probleme am Arbeitsmarkt vom (ohnehin schwachen) Wirtschaftswachstum nicht viel mitbekommen werden.
Es wird sich wie eine prolongierte Rezession anfühlen, auch wenn es - technisch gesprochen - keine sein wird.
