The economic recovery in Spain has ground to a complete halt. According to first estimates by INE, Spanish real GDP was unchanged in the third quarter (0.8% YoY), after growing a modest 0.2% QoQ in the second quarter. The outcome was less bad than had been suggested by lead indicators such as the purchasing managers’ indices, but bang in line with the initial estimate of the Bank of Spain. No expenditure breakdown is available at this stage, but we suspect that a positive contribution from net exports was offset by a further contraction in domestic demand. [...]
Looking ahead, we fear that the Spanish economy might slip into recession soon – perhaps as soon as the current fourth quarter. Our base case scenario envisages no economic growth in 2012. The worsening economic outlook poses significant risks to Spain’s fiscal consolidation efforts. Indeed, Spain’s budget deficit targets (2011: 6.0% of GDP; 2012: 4.4%) are based on growth assumptions of 1.3% this year and 2.3% in 2012, which seem overly optimistic.
Investors have taken note, with the yield on Spain’s 10 year rising in recent days.
Als kleine, aber deshalb nicht weniger unerfreuliche Randnotiz: Auch die Zinsen für 10-jährige österreichische Staatsanleihen stiegen heute an.
